More than a month after the fragile ceasefire that ended the 12-day Israel-Iran war on June 24, the conflict's aftermath continues to reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, with Iran's nuclear program suffering severe damage that has set back its capabilities by up to two years, Netanyahu's government facing political pressure from coalition partners threatening to dissolve parliament, and conflicts persisting as Iran attempts to rebuild its network of allied groups across the Middle East .
The ceasefire agreement brokered by President Donald Trump faced immediate challenges within hours of its implementation. Both Israel and Iran accused each other of violations, with Israel claiming Iran fired missiles after the ceasefire began, while Iran denied these allegations and accused Israel of continued strikes. Despite these early tensions, the ceasefire has largely held for the past month.
New intelligence assessments reveal the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure. According to estimates from the Pentagon, the strikes executed by both the Israelis and the United States resulted in the delay of the Iranian nuclear program by as long as two years, or caused substantial non-military degradation to the program that was nonexistent. The most significant destruction suffered was Iran’s Fordow facility. The destruction targeted Iran's entire nuclear supply chain, as the Natanz facility suffered significant damage to stores on the ground floor as well as far underground in both the structure and centrifuge halls.
There was also considerable damage to the uranium conversion facilities at the Isfahan nuclear complex, which are critical for producing nuclear fuel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted it was so severely damaged that officials "cannot see" or access the site.
The Philippines faces significant risks to human security and economic stability due to its 2 million overseas Filipino workers in the Middle East region. The government has raised Alert Level 3 for Israel and Iran, imposing deployment bans and voluntary repatriation operations.
However, only 0.02% of OFWs have taken advantage of the replaced-out process, mainly due to fears of losing employment or shifting family responsibilities. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have cost the Philippines an additional ₱94.9 billion.
Missiles in operation
On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, launching surprise attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites. The Israeli Defense Forces dropped over 330 munitions on around 100 targets, including the Natanz Nuclear Facility, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. Israeli forces also targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders.
Iran responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles with their own operation called “True Promise,” attacking Israeli military assets, cities, and civilian infrastructure in residential areas. By June 14, Israeli forces had carried out attacks on Israeli military assets, cities, and civilian infrastructure, resulting in civilian deaths and injuries.
On June 21, President Trump authorized Operation Midnight Hammer, the largest B-2 stealth bomber operation in U.S. history. This marked as a significant U.S. military intervention in the Middle East since the Iraq War began in 2003, representing a definitive shift in the U.S. role from a regional mediator to a direct combatant. The operation's success hinged on deception tactics, which involved sending decoy bombers west toward the Pacific while the primary strike force undertook an 18-hour eastward flight to its destination.
Trump’s diplomatic intervention and early violations
On June 23, Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, mediated through Qatar and implemented in phases. The agreement involved two 12-hour ceasefire periods, with Iran ceasing attacks first on June 24, followed by Israel halting strikes 12 hours later.
Trump intervened directly, warning Israel not to "drop those bombs" and expressing frustration with both nations for their actions. The crisis was resolved when Netanyahu spoke directly with Trump, after which Israel suspended further strikes and confirmed its commitment to the ceasefire.
Pezeshkian declared the conflict a "great victory" for Iran and expressed readiness to resolve differences with the United States based on international frameworks. The ceasefire appeared to hold as both countries signaled the conflict was over, at least temporarily.
The consequences of military escalation
The humanitarian impact released by the Iranian judiciary states that there are now 935 dead– including 132 women and 38 children, and the Health Ministry is counting more than 5,300 injured. Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which is an independent monitoring group, estimates the death toll is even higher, at around 1,050 and counting.
On the Israeli-controlled side, medical officials report from the Israel’s Health Ministry that there have been 28 people killed, nearly all of them are civilians, and there are 3,238 people hospitalized with injuries ranging from shrapnel to acute anxiety, and over 9,000 residents have evacuated homes that were damaged.
The fighting also caused one of the greatest internal displacements inside Iran in decades. A satellite tracking of traffic flows showed that nearly nine million residents of the city of Tehran and others fled northward during the strikes. The spillover continues region-wide: debris and interceptor shrapnel from missiles have fallen across Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, and at least five civilians have been injured when shrapnel fell near Irbid and Aqaba.
According to Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) data from June 2025, the Philippines maintains a substantial overseas worker presence in both Israel and Iran, with approximately 30,742 Filipinos stationed in Israel and 1,180 in Iran.
DFA raised its crisis alert levels to Alert Level 3 in the two countries, advising the voluntary repatriation of overseas Filipino workers. As of June 23, 223 Filipinos in Israel and eight in Iran had requested repatriation assistance due to the entry of the United States to the conflict.
The country remains managing the humanitarian repercussions from the conflict on its overseas workers. Since the conflict erupted, 373 of nearly 30,000 Filipino workers in Israel have requested repatriation. The government has successfully repatriated 71 overseas Filipino workers in several batches through July, each benefitting from ₱150,000 in financial assistance.
The larger regional concern incorporates over 2 million Filipino workers across the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, all of whom remain threatened by potential escalation. Several Filipino workers were injured during the conflict including one worker sustaining critical injuries, now in intensive care.
The ceasefire that stopped WWIII-–for now
Even with the ceasefire, regional tensions remain with proxy conflict. In Yemen the Houthis have sustained their operation against Israel by launching 11 missiles and drones in early July targeted to strike Ben Gurion Airport, Ashdod Port and other critical infrastructures. Israel has responded with targeted strikes on Houthi infrastructure at Hodeidah port.
The Houthis claim their attacks will continue until Israel ends its Gaza operations and lifts blockades. These ongoing confrontations demonstrate how the broader regional conflict extends beyond the direct Israel-Iran confrontation.
The role of the Philippines in the hostilities demonstrated both the vulnerabilities and resiliencies of a country that is completely reliant on overseas labor and the consequential energy imports to sustain. In the end, the speed at which the government initiated the evacuation of its citizenry, its granting of fuel subsidies, and the adjustment in deployment fairness of OFW's were examples of the best of crisis management reaction improvement.
A crisis has changed Middle Eastern dynamics, as although Iran's nuclear capabilities have significantly diminished, its proxy networks in the region remain active.
While the immediate crisis has somewhat contained, the crisis has no resolution to the underlying tensions that initiated the 12-day war, suggesting the conflicts will result in some instability in the months to follow.
